The Smell of Doom

In European history, there is a detectable trend of leadership which on the face does not appear suicidal but nonetheless arrives inexorably at self-destruction. They march to doom by convincing themselves that inching toward conflict is still peace. In our recent episode, the devil with which the deal is being made is Iran, more specifically the mad mullahs and their lunatic representative, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In game theory, you try to play out the course of events to figure out what move you should make now. Apparently, the Europeans never thought that Iran would thumb it's nose at them and seem wholly unable to grasp the dire consequences of a nuclear Iran. Is it any wonder that Russia and China have no problem with Iran developing nukes? Russia has, of course, seen the folly that a nuclear Islamic state will inevitably point its weapons at Moscow, which after the US is the major nemisis of the fanatical muslim movement. Can we guess how this will end? Israel will have to take matters into their own hands and they will not play nice. The upset of the oil market which the Europeans wanted to avoid at all costs (and the Iranians could guess this) would happen anyway except with the added feature of a regional nuclear conflict. A conflict which will inevitably have to involve many participants.

Charles Krauthammer has a good piece on this topic. However, to understand the mindset of the self-delusional, read this Guardian article where in the last line, the author states : "If ever there were a realpolitik demanding to be 'hugged close' it is this one, however distasteful its leader and his centrifuges. If you cannot stop a man buying a gun, the next best bet is to make him your friend, not your enemy. "

I think the millions of dead Russians, victims of Stalin's deal with Hitler, would argue otherwise if they were alive. If a man announces he wishes to kill someone and everyone stands around as he gets a gun and loads it, are they complicit in the inevitable shootout?