PlayStation 2 Politics

From the Washington Post's Glen Kessler comes an armchair assessment of "missed opportunity" with Iran. His position is that back in 2003 the Iranians were in a frightened panic over our lightning take over of Iraq and were ready to deal on a whole host of issues, such as nuclear ambitions, ceasing sponsorship of terrorism, cooperation in Iraq and accepting Israel. Bush's team ignored the proposal containing the plea for talks thinking that the mad mullahs were on their last legs. Fast forward to 2006 and the situation has done a 180: the US is looking vulnerable and Iran's star is ascendant, bouyed by oil profits. With hindsight and not wisdom being 20/20, a whole lot of pundits who have an infinite optimism in a Iran's ability to suddenly change 25 years of behavior now say we missed an opportunity.

Chamberlain was urged and ultimately heeded a call to negotiate with Hitler prior to WWII. It actually did harm by allaying productive fear amoung Europe's power centers. You cannot expect a leopard to change his spots any more than you can hope that the scorpion, once on your back, will not sting you.

Regardless of what may have happened in the past, international politics is always driven by the present and the ambitions of the leaders in power. History is replete with examples of countries turning their backs on treaties once the situation which drove them to compromise has changed. This is especially true of regimes like Iran, that is, dictatorships bent on causing trouble. To think that Iran would not have cheated on any deal is tantamount to being completely ignorant of Iran cheating on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Iran may well have been ready to deal back in 2003 though it is sure that they were not serious about a complete change. However, with the mullahs in power, their ultimate goal is not peace but promoting their radical version of Islam along with its concomitant desire for regional domination. Once the oil revenue started rolling in, no deal advantageous to the US would have held water.